Bebel Without a Clause

Bebel Without a Clause

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

FloodGate: Pak Lah and the Pandora Box

Aku cilok dari member mana entah: Later aku reveal the source.
Ini Floodgate macam Kelang Gate kot. Mungkin penulis itu nak hint sedikit pasal Azmin yang duduk di Kelang Gate.
Dear all,
Regarding talks that the Chinese community overwhelmingly (90%-95%) voted against BN in the last GE, I find it baffling..
  1. ….that a community can be so united in displaying its political will.
  2. ….and able to pull off such a thing quietly without being detected in advance by our leaders.
Amazing, eh?

  • All the free dinners, free concerts and bla,bla, bla, whilst giving the impression that support was forthcoming to BN, didn't materialize at all.

  • In short, appears that PM Najib and BN "sudah kena kencing bigtime lah" by the Chinese community!

Well, on a serious not, I'm just trying to understand the factors that led to such a united voting pattern from the Chinese community. Allow me to share my thoughts with you on why such a phenomena happened.

The Floodgate has been opened wide after the 2008 GE, thanks to Pak Lah.

  • In the past (prior to 2008),  Chinese feel they have no choice politically but to vote BN  for their economic survival.

  • They have no choice politically largely because of the FEAR of the unknown.

  • The fear that the Opposition may bankrupt the country, or may not govern well, leading to their rice bowls being affected.

  • BN has been successful in conditioning that into their minds.

  • So even if UMNO is deemed racist, the Chinese just tutup telinga and ignore as long as they can survive and make money.

  • But after the 2008 GE, the floodgate has been opened wide, thanks to Pak Lah.

  • Perception of the leadership then was so bad that maybe led to the Chinese to just tutup mata and voted for the Opposition. That fear has suddenly been overcome.

  • Now there is NO more fear of the unknown as the floodgate has been opened wide.

  • Why? The Opposition has shown that they can govern well in the states that they are in control.  And they're capable of helming the Federal Govt. So the Chinese  fears towards the Opposition all the while seem unfounded. Chinese now feel they have a choice, politically.

  • Now the Chinese realize they're politically rejuvenated.

Flaring up of racial sentiments by the Opposition especially DAP.

  • The call for MC A to be punished for being UMNO lackeys is actually racist in nature.

  • Plus the perception that Chinese has been marginalized and treated as second class citizens by the UMNO led BN Govt also made things worse.

  • But this factor on its own would NOT work to drive the Chinese to overwhelmly reject BN. (Why I say so? The DAP has been using the same tactics for decades without much success). So there must be other factors coming into play as well. (so see analysis below).

FACTOR 3 : Perception of a corrupt and rotten Government.
  • The perception that MCA leaders semua sudah "kenyang", so it high time to give opportunity to the DAP. But such perception is not only confined to the MCA but extended to the other component parties in BN as well.
  • In my humble opinion, Factor 2 (Flaring up of racial sentiments by the DAP) in the past few decades DID NOT WORK in full simply because of the absence of FACTOR 1 i.e. the floodgate has NOT been opened wide then.
  • But after the 2008 GE, Factor 1 (the floodgate has been opened wide), came into play. That opened to the eyes of other Chinese as well.
  • Chinese who voted for BN in the 2008 GE, realize now have a choice to vote for the Opposition. So they voted  for the Opposition in 2013.
  • Plus the Chinese who voted for the Opposition back in 2008, also voted similarly  in 2013.
  • That's why BN kena double whammy…Chinese overwhelmingly voted for the Opposition in the 2013 GE. (That was not the case back in 2008).
  • This also explain why despite the incessant attacks by BN to potray the Opposition as a fragmented coalition with differing ideologies simply did not work with the Chinese community. As there is now no more fear of the unknown! (Remember, the floodgate has been opened wide?).
What does the above all mean?
  • Even if PM Najib manage to overcome Factor 3 by improving his Administration's governance and eliminate corruption completely by appointing angels into his administration, will the Chinese vote come back to BN in the next GE?
  • Well, not necessarily in my view since you still have Factor 1 (the floodgate has been opened wide) and Factor 2 (flaring up of racial sentiments by the DAP) coming into play.
What am I trying to say?
  • Basically whatever effort put in or resources poured into the Chinese community by the PM and his administration will not necessarily get BN the votes simply because of factor 1 and factor 2, which will still come into play in each and subsequent GEs.
  • Floodgate tu dah terbukak and terkangkang besar, so menang tak boleh tutup pun…
  • …unless the Govt goes for full meritocracy and eliminate any form of preferential treatment for Bumis. But then, that would be a political suicide since Malays still form the majority of this country and any attempt to do so will result to a backlash.
  • No one wants to do an investment with negative return. Or putting more and more resources, yet the results seem stagnant.
  • Our PM should gauge what is the OPTIMUM amount of effort and resources to be put in to woo the Chinese community, given that factor 1 and factor 2 will still come into play in the next GE. Kalau tak, nanti kena kencing bigtime lagi..

  • The balance of the resources should be channelled elsewhere i.e. to the other communities to get better returns.

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